The Philippines Civil War (2015-2026)

NOTE: This is a practice of an alternate future. This is in no way made to offend anyone in particular, not even the Filipinos. It's just interesting to speculate.

The Philippines Civil War was the deadliest and most devastating conflict in the history of the Philippines. Roughly 8% of the Filipino population died and an 11-year conflict between the Republic and various anti-government militias, which eventually resulted in a government victory, keeping the Philippines united and democratic.

What caused the civil war in the first place?

The origins date all the way back to the middle of the 2nd millennium with the Moro people. The predominantly Muslim people living in Mindanao faced long history of resistances against the Spanish, Americans and Japanese. By the time the Philippines declared independence from the United States in 1946, troubles began to stir up between the Filipino government and the communist insurgents backed during the Cold War. By 1969, during the Marcos administration, relations between Filipinos and the Moro people became sour. In response, the latter formed various Islamist militias in Mindanao and began decades of insurgency in the southern portion of the island nation. In 2001, with the War on Terror, terrorism in the country became much more prominent.

Fast forward to September 26, 2015, in Manila, during the live airing of the Kalyeserye series, terrorists kidnapped Yaya Dub, as well 17 other civilians, and took them to a rogue base in Lanao del Norte. This move shocked the whole nation into panic, especially Yaya's love interest, Alden Richards. They thought that it was just another part of the segment or staged, but the abduction was a real issue that must not be joked about. Immediately, the AFP mobilized for the rescue operations in Mindanao. The Moro National Liberation Front promised to give back to them Yaya Dub, only on one condition: surrender the entire Mindanao to the MNLF, establish a free Moro state there and recognize it. The Philippine government was at total loss on what to do. The terrorists knew that the Filipino people would do everything just to get back Yaya in Alden's safe haven. They were right. Against their own will, the government relinquished the southern portion of the country to the Moros. Yaya was brought back once again, safe in the company of her family and Alden. However, at a terrible cost, Mindanao seceded to the terrorists. Therefore, the Bangsamoro Respublik was created and unofficially recognized by the northern government. Outraged with this, the international community, including the United States, South Korea, Japan and Europe, refused to recognize the legitimacy of a Moro state and claimed this as occupied Philippine territory. But some countries, such as China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and Egypt, recognized the sovereignty of the Muslims in the south. This decision to trade the southern portion of the nation for the lives of the very important innocent was seen as a grave failure for Benigno Aquino III and he would be forever known as "the President who lost Mindanao".

The government knew well that more innocent lives would be lost if they don't offer the terrorists what they desire. They believed that if they gave the terrorists what they really wanted for a long time, they would finally leave the people alone once and for all. But alas, they were wrong.

Just nearly a month after Yaya Dub's abduction, a terrorist bombing on a bus in EDSA killed 19 civilians and injured 30 more. This infuriated the despaired population. At that point did they realize that the terrorists would never stop until the Republic of the Philippines is destroyed. With this thought and their will not to allow the Islamists' control over Mindanao, the Philippine declared war on Bangsamoro to take back what was lost. This started a decade-long war in which millions of Filipinos have died and it opened up a new major stage on the War on Terror.

A year later, the civil war took a more fundamental turn. It wasn't just between the Philippines and Bangsamoro. It was now fought by many anti-government militia groups. Most notable is the New People's Army, a communist terrorist group which had been active for decades. In the civil war, their goal was to conquer the whole archipelago and establish a communist state, although that goal seemed obsolete and overdue since the end of the Cold War. And that's the point of the whole conflict. Any faction who would crush the remaining opponents and claim the entire country would be the victor.

The international community gave support as well in the conflict. The western powers formed a coalition to intervene in the war and directly help the Philippine government, much like they did in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Bangsamoro Republik is supported by Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and Pakistan. The New People's Army was backed by China, North Korea, Vietnam and Laos. The fascist group, the Filipino National Socialist Front, that believed the Philippines could only only prosper through a strong totalitarian rule, were backed by Russia, Iran and India. But all those non-Western support were indirect and small. Anarchist factions also fought in the conflict, but contributed little into the proceedings. ISIS as well intervened in the war. Because of the civil war, the 2016 presidential elections were suspended and Aquino remained President throughout the entire conflict. The condition of the Philippines became just as bad, if not worse than in Syria.

In 2026, the fighting ended when the AFP, with western help, dismantled the Bangsamoro Republik with force and the Islamists ultimately surrendered. The militias became too weak and simply couldn't fight anymore. The victory was a celebration for the Filipino people. However, the civil war left the country destabilized, broken and on a verge of complete economic collapse. Nation-building began months after and ended seven years later when the Philippines once again was stable and became the new "Tiger of Asia", one of the most prosperous democracies in the continent. The Filipino people learned from their faults and mistakes, and rose up from the ruins with the strong determination not to give up.